The Bitcoin price seems to have calmed down somewhat and is now stabilizing around $118,000. But will it stay that way? The charts show that the chance of a breakout is increasing. What role will America play in this this afternoon?
The Crypto Report Card
The Crypto Report Card, which is a good indicator of sentiment in the crypto market, has risen again slightly, to a 6. This is mainly due to, after a long wait, trend reversals on a few altcoin charts! A few of these charts have now become bullish again.
Good to keep an eye on: if we see a Crypto Report Card of 8 or higher for a few days in a row, that is a very reliable signal that we could experience a bull run.
The Monthly Volatility ('Interval Volatility')
The monthly volatility is unchanged again and still stands at 17.2%. That is still 4.5% lower than the monthly volatility we can expect for July.
On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage is the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. The range corresponding to the average monthly volatility is $101,300 - $127,800.
The Average Daily Volatility
The average daily volatility is still 4.6%. Based on yesterday's low and high ($117,047 and $120,086), the expected range for today is $114,800 - $122,400. The Bitcoin price, as I write this (10am in Europe), is $118,235, exactly in the middle of that range. One of the signals that it could be an interesting day for Bitcoin is a price breakout from the $114,800 - $122,400 range.
The Daily Chart
The BTC-USD daily chart on Bitstamp remains neatly bullish, with a price that also stays nicely above the support of $117,400 (the first Fibonacci Retracement zone, which we discussed yesterday and the day before yesterday). The MA lines also look good: the trend can therefore, again, undoubtedly be called stably bullish.
The Hourly Chart
Although the hourly chart was briefly bullish yesterday afternoon, the trend according to the peaks and troughs has ‘technically’ already reversed to bearish.
However: volatility is significantly decreasing at the moment, as you can see from the triangle. That doesn't make the bearish trend reversal very strong. Moreover, the MA lines are now back in the correct order (slow, faster, fastest), and that order actually indicates a bullish trend.
In short: the trend on the hour chart is unclear. And that while the chance of a breakout has become quite large. Which direction is then more likely?
If I look at the 15m chart and the 5m chart, both of which currently indicate a bullish trend, the chance of a price increase is slightly greater than a price decrease in the event of a breakout. And that would again be in line with the bullish trend on the daily chart.
My Expectation
Again today, some figures will be released from the United States, providing insight into unemployment and consumer confidence. And so, again, for the last time this week:
Are those figures negative? Then people on Wall Street will become a bit more nervous, which increases the chance of a (temporary) falling Bitcoin price, towards $118,000. If the price falls even further? Then, according to the Fibonacci Retracements on the day chart, there is support at $113,700 and $110,700.
Are those figures positive? Then a rise towards $122,000 and perhaps even further is quite possible.
Please note: I do NOT give you financial advice. Everything you read here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything similar. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell something. The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research—preferably always in the same way—before deciding to buy or sell an 'asset' like Bitcoin.
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