Although the market reacted enthusiastically to positive economic news from the United States and the price even briefly touched $121,000 yesterday, that's where it stayed. Meanwhile, trading volume, and with it momentum, is decreasing. What do the charts tell us about Bitcoin's price development this weekend?
The Crypto Report Card
The Crypto Report Card remains unchanged at a 6. Sentiment therefore remains hesitant, despite significant price increases for a few altcoins over the past 24 hours. While some altcoin markets are already showing upward trends, there are still too few for a stably higher Report Card.
The Monthly Volatility
The monthly volatility is unchanged compared to yesterday. In fact, it hasn't changed since the previous All-Time High, which was last Monday.
On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage is the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. The range that belongs to the average monthly volatility is $101,300 - $127,800.
The Average Daily Volatility
The average daily volatility is also still 4.6%. Based on yesterday's low and high ($117,506 and $121,000), the expected range for today is $115,700 - $123,900.
At the time of writing (eleven o'clock in the morning), the Bitcoin price is, like yesterday, somewhere in the middle of that range. And just like yesterday, this range can give a signal: it could be an interesting day for Bitcoin if the price breaks out of the $115,700 - $123,900 range.
The Daily Chart
Although yesterday's high ($121,000) is higher than the day before yesterday, nothing else has changed on the daily chart. The trend remains stably bullish. However, the daily volume is something to keep an eye on: it seems to be decreasing somewhat, which increases the chance of price declines.
As for price action: the longer wicks we've seen over the past two days show some uncertainty about the direction the price should move. Although much indicates that we have not yet reached the new peak (and thus a new All-Time High), there is currently too little momentum for that to happen.
The Hourly Chart
Yesterday's bearish trend reversal indeed turned out not to be very strong; the hourly chart has now turned bullish. The higher peaks and troughs we've seen since yesterday are supported by three MA lines that are all in the correct order and all pointing upwards.
Yesterday afternoon at three o'clock (European Time), shortly after the positive news about employment figures, among other things, was released in the US, the Bitcoin price quickly rose to $121,000. However, the party was already over there: many traders are currently taking profits in the $121,000 zone, which prevented a real breakout, and thus an All-Time High, yesterday. Currently, the Bitcoin price, on the hourly chart, is moving in a range between $118,500 and $121,000.
Trading volume has decreased somewhat in the last 12 hours, indicating a temporary lack of interest from retail traders. And then that triangle from yesterday, which clearly showed that volatility was decreasing: the price was not moving as much anymore. In almost all cases, a breakout then occurs, usually 'with the trend'.
The price did come out of the triangle, but there was no real breakout. A false signal, then: I no longer consider this triangle relevant.
My Expectation
The price currently seems to be moving sideways, with somewhat decreasing interest. Although the 'slower' charts are all bullish, the trend on the faster charts, such as the 5m-chart, has now turned bearish. I'm keeping a close eye on that: if the trend remains bearish there (and we don't see sideways movements on that 5m-chart), I expect some modest price declines during the first part of the weekend.
Please note: I do NOT give you financial advice. Everything you read here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything similar. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell something. The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research—preferably always in the same way—before deciding to buy or sell an 'asset' like Bitcoin.
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