The Crypto Report Card

The Crypto Report Card remains unchanged since yesterday: a 5. Most altcoins are already recovering after the dip from the day before yesterday. After all, and I repeat what I wrote yesterday: the trend for most altcoin markets is currently bullish.

The Monthly Volatility

I can be brief about monthly volatility: it is, even after the Bitcoin price 'drop,' once again unchanged. Even after this drop, the Bitcoin price is still within the existing low and high on the July monthly chart. The real movement could therefore still come: we still have seven days left in July…

On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage represents the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. The rangecorresponding to the average monthly volatility is $101,300 - $127,800.

The Average Daily Volatility

The Bitcoin price did not break out of the $116,500 - $121,100 range yesterday, so it wasn't an 'exciting day' for Bitcoin. Today is different!

Let's start with today's expected range, based on the average daily volatility (3.2%) and yesterday's low and high ($117,201 and $119,525): $115,800 - $120,900.

I'm writing this at 10:15 AM, European Time. The Bitcoin price has already been well below the range today, with a low (at the moment) of $114,518. And that means we can expect much more movement today, making it a very interesting day, especially for Bitcoin traders who can easily make quick profits, on both the 'long' and 'short' sides.

The Daily Chart

Yesterday, it seemed that with last Tuesday's (July 22) swing low, we also had a new trough. In fact, the stable bullish trend made the chance of declines below that swing low very small.

And so you see: technical analysis never offers 100% certainty. Due to a significant number of long squeezes (over 300 million dollars in four hours), where Bitcoin borrowed by traders is sold rapidly (forced), the price of Bitcoin fell by more than 2.5% in four hours. And that means the July 22 trough is now invalid. At the earliest, we will know the day after tomorrow whether the current low ($114,518) is the new swing low.

Despite the fact that the price of Bitcoin has dropped by more than 4% in the last four days, the trend on the daily chart remains stably bullish! The peaks and troughs are still higher, the MA lines are still in the correct order and still pointing upwards. In short: this price drop seems severe, but for now, it's nothing more than a temporary 'slump'.

This is also confirmed by the enthusiasm among larger investors, who are still buying Bitcoin en masse. Retail traders are charting their own course and are sometimes, like today, surprised by the devastating effect of leveraged trading. I too was surprised! I absolutely did not see last night's drop coming yesterday.

In fact: I'm still counting on an All-Time High, soon. Naïve? We'll see :)

The Hourly Chart

There's quite a lot to say about the hourly chart again.

The Falling Wedge Signal

Let's start with yesterday's Falling Wedge signal. That has now become invalid.

A Falling Wedge is no longer valid if the price moves sideways instead of continuing to fall. It is also off the table when volatility causes the price to break both above and below the wedge's trend lines.

The Trend

And then the trend. It has now reversed to bearish, with lower peaks and troughs, and MA lines in the correct order for a bearish trend. But… watch out for the 'elastic' effect! The price is currently too far from the MA20. And that means the price will almost automatically be pulled back to the MA20 line; either because the MA20 line falls, or because the price rises.

Chart Patterns

Take a look at the candles from the moment the price started to fall rapidly. Momentum clearly increased, with larger bodies and hardly any wicks.

That has changed since 9 AM this morning. The wicks are now longer, with even a doji at 9 AM (no body and very long wicks).

A doji is a chart pattern that indicates uncertainty about price movement and usually precedes a reverse movement; in this case, a price increase.

The Trading Volume

Finally: the trading volume! It exploded last night, indicating that there were enough buyers present to acquire Bitcoin at a lower price.

Rising trading volume with a falling price is a divergent signal. That volume indicates increasing interest in trading Bitcoin, which doesn't fit with a falling price. The result is often that the price rises quickly.

My Expectation

For me, it's clear that the Bitcoin price drop has nothing to do with Bitcoin itself. There is no decreasing market confidence or anything like that: the price drop is purely 'technical' and a result of liquidations.

Much higher prices, and thus a new All-Time High, are still possible. But… it needs to happen quickly now. Next week, markets will undoubtedly become restless due to all the news about import tariffs. We saw what happened in the first week of April when Trump announced one tariff after another…

And so, I'm keeping a very close eye on the hourly chart.

• If the price remains above the 9 AM low ($114,518) in the coming hours? Then I expect significant price increases could suddenly occur, and the trend on the hourly chart will quickly reverse to bullish.

• If the price drops below $114,518? Then it might get intense for a while, but I simply see no signal that real panic will break out in the market.

Please note: I am NOT giving you financial advice. Everything you read here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything of the sort. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines,' to buy or sell something.

The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research – preferably always in the same way – before deciding to buy or sell an 'asset' like Bitcoin.

The Crypto Report Card

The Crypto Report Card has dropped to a 5. This has everything to do with yesterday evening's sudden 'dip', which caused the Bitcoin daily chart to end with a red candle and almost all altcoins to drop significantly in price. The cause? Mainly profit-taking on altcoins, which have risen sharply in price recently. Especially ETH, XRP, ADA, and SOL took a hit yesterday, with price drops sometimes exceeding 5% within a few hours.

By far most larger altcoins look bullish in terms of trend, making it highly likely that prices will rise again in the short term.

The Monthly Volatility

I can (and will) be brief about the monthly volatility: it has remained unchanged since last Monday's All-Time High.

On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. This percentage is the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. The range that belongs to the average monthly volatility is $101,300 - $127,800.

The Average Daily Volatility

The average daily volatility has dropped to 3.2%. This brings the expected range for today, based on yesterday's low and high ($117,376 and $120,265), to $116,500 - $121,100.

The daily range is always interesting to keep an eye on. If the price 'breaks out' (down or up) from it, it is often a sign of much higher volatility. Or, as I always say: it can be an exciting day for the Bitcoin price.

The Daily Chart

The low of the day before yesterday (the last green candle) has indeed, as was to be expected yesterday, become a new swing low. This means that we technically have a new trough, which at $116,186 is significantly higher than the previous trough from July 2.

The probability of this becoming the new trough is high, as the trend on the daily chart remains stably bullish, which makes the chance of further price increases, and thus a new All-Time High, significant; I do not expect sharp declines at this moment.

The Hourly Chart

At first glance, the hourly chart does not seem to give a signal: the MA lines are still in the wrong order, and there appears to be a sideways movement within a bullish trend. But there is definitely something to see.

The Falling Wedge Signal

As you can see in the image above, a Falling Wedge has emerged since yesterday's analysis: the last two 'extreme highs' result in a downward sloping line, which also applies to the last two 'extreme lows'. Such a Falling Wedge is a bullish chart pattern that, with a high degree of certainty, indicates an upcoming breakout.

The percentage by which the price can break out is as large as the percentage difference between the lower and upper lines (at the beginning): 2.3%.

The target price (currently $121,850) changes every hour, as long as no breakout has occurred. You calculate this price based on the point where the price 'breaks out'. At the moment, this is the 10 AM candle (European time, by the way).

My Expectation

Since yesterday, nothing has changed regarding my expectation: the chance of a new All-Time High has increased over the last few days. The main reasons are again:

• There is still room concerning monthly volatility.

• The daily chart is bullish, and the bullish momentum is increasing.

• The hourly chart now gives a clear bullish signal with the Falling Wedge.

And so, I am again keeping a close eye on the daily range: $116,500 - $121,100. If we see a price breakout from that range, it will be an exciting day!

Please note: I am NOT giving you financial advice. Everything you read here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything similar. You will never receive a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell anything.

The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research – preferably always in the same way – before deciding to buy or sell an 'asset' such as Bitcoin.

The modest price drops I expected in my previous analysis have indeed occurred. But that's as far as it went: the bullish trend on the daily chart now seems to be confirmed by what we are seeing on the hourly chart. The sentiment has also become much more positive. Time for another All-Time High?

The Crypto Report Card

The Crypto Report Card has risen to an 8. The cause? Altcoins! The trend for many altcoins has now reversed and become convincingly bullish. And while there is absolutely no talk of an altcoin season yet (that really requires more than two weeks of price increases), the enthusiasm for altcoins has returned among retail traders and investors.

The Monthly Volatility

The monthly volatility has been unchanged for over a week now, since last Monday's All-Time High. Statistically, we could still see breakouts this month towards $128,000 or, in case of extremely bearish news, towards $101,000.

On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage is the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. The range that corresponds to the average monthly volatility is $101,300 - $127,800.

The Average Daily Volatility

The average daily volatility is 4.6%, likely for the last time today. This volatility will probably dip tomorrow (because the low of June 22nd will no longer be included in the calculation). But based on yesterday's low and high ($116,186 and $120,297), the expected range for today is $115,000 - $121,500.

The Daily Chart

The trend on the Bitcoin daily chart is still stably bullish. Technically, with yesterday's low ($116,186), we may have caught a new swing low (and thus a new bottom). If that indeed turns out to be the case tomorrow, it would be a textbook continuation of the bullish trend, with ever-higher highs and higher lows.

The signal of declining momentum I mentioned in my previous analysis did materialize: there was too little momentum last week to reach a new All-Time High. However, that changed a bit yesterday: the body of the green candle is finally significantly larger than its wicks again. In this bullish trend, this increases the probability of higher prices – and thus the chance of a new All-Time High!

The Hourly Chart

The hourly chart is quite erratic at the moment: since my last analysis (the vertical blue dotted line indicates the time), the trend has reversed more than ten times. What's noticeable is that the bullish trends have more momentum than the bearish trends. You could therefore see the bullish trends as 'stronger': in any case, the hourly chart does not give a clear signal that the bullish trend on the daily chart is about to reverse.

However, the 1h-chart is not stably bullish: although the three MA lines are in the correct order, that's all there is to it. For a stably bullish chart, you want to see the price above the MA lines, with those MA lines, from top to bottom—fast, slower, slowest—all pointing upwards. That has not been the case since my last analysis (the blue vertical dotted line).

My Expectation

The chance of a new All-Time High has increased in the last few days:

• There is still room regarding monthly volatility.

• The daily chart is bullish and bullish momentum is increasing.

• The hourly chart does not show a clear diverging signal.

I am keeping a close eye on the daily range in particular: $115,000 - $121,500. If the price breaks above that $121,500, things will get interesting today!

Please note: I am NOT giving you financial advice. The only thing you are reading here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything of the sort. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell anything.

The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research – preferably always in the same way – before you decide to buy or sell an asset like Bitcoin.

Although the market reacted enthusiastically to positive economic news from the United States and the price even briefly touched $121,000 yesterday, that's where it stayed. Meanwhile, trading volume, and with it momentum, is decreasing. What do the charts tell us about Bitcoin's price development this weekend?

The Crypto Report Card

The Crypto Report Card remains unchanged at a 6. Sentiment therefore remains hesitant, despite significant price increases for a few altcoins over the past 24 hours. While some altcoin markets are already showing upward trends, there are still too few for a stably higher Report Card.

The Monthly Volatility

The monthly volatility is unchanged compared to yesterday. In fact, it hasn't changed since the previous All-Time High, which was last Monday.

On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage is the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. The range that belongs to the average monthly volatility is $101,300 - $127,800.

The Average Daily Volatility

The average daily volatility is also still 4.6%. Based on yesterday's low and high ($117,506 and $121,000), the expected range for today is $115,700 - $123,900.

At the time of writing (eleven o'clock in the morning), the Bitcoin price is, like yesterday, somewhere in the middle of that range. And just like yesterday, this range can give a signal: it could be an interesting day for Bitcoin if the price breaks out of the $115,700 - $123,900 range.

The Daily Chart

Although yesterday's high ($121,000) is higher than the day before yesterday, nothing else has changed on the daily chart. The trend remains stably bullish. However, the daily volume is something to keep an eye on: it seems to be decreasing somewhat, which increases the chance of price declines.

As for price action: the longer wicks we've seen over the past two days show some uncertainty about the direction the price should move. Although much indicates that we have not yet reached the new peak (and thus a new All-Time High), there is currently too little momentum for that to happen.

The Hourly Chart

Yesterday's bearish trend reversal indeed turned out not to be very strong; the hourly chart has now turned bullish. The higher peaks and troughs we've seen since yesterday are supported by three MA lines that are all in the correct order and all pointing upwards.

Yesterday afternoon at three o'clock (European Time), shortly after the positive news about employment figures, among other things, was released in the US, the Bitcoin price quickly rose to $121,000. However, the party was already over there: many traders are currently taking profits in the $121,000 zone, which prevented a real breakout, and thus an All-Time High, yesterday. Currently, the Bitcoin price, on the hourly chart, is moving in a range between $118,500 and $121,000.

Trading volume has decreased somewhat in the last 12 hours, indicating a temporary lack of interest from retail traders. And then that triangle from yesterday, which clearly showed that volatility was decreasing: the price was not moving as much anymore. In almost all cases, a breakout then occurs, usually 'with the trend'.

The price did come out of the triangle, but there was no real breakout. A false signal, then: I no longer consider this triangle relevant.

My Expectation

The price currently seems to be moving sideways, with somewhat decreasing interest. Although the 'slower' charts are all bullish, the trend on the faster charts, such as the 5m-chart, has now turned bearish. I'm keeping a close eye on that: if the trend remains bearish there (and we don't see sideways movements on that 5m-chart), I expect some modest price declines during the first part of the weekend.

Please note: I do NOT give you financial advice. Everything you read here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything similar. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell something. The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research—preferably always in the same way—before deciding to buy or sell an 'asset' like Bitcoin.

The Crypto Report Card

The Crypto Report Card has risen to an 8. The cause? Altcoins! The trend for many altcoins has now reversed and become convincingly bullish. And while there is absolutely no talk of an altcoin season yet (that really requires more than two weeks of price increases), the enthusiasm for altcoins has returned among retail traders and investors.

The Monthly Volatility

The monthly volatility has been unchanged for over a week now, since last Monday's All-Time High. Statistically, we could still see breakouts this month towards $128,000 or, in case of extremely bearish news, towards $101,000.

On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage is the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. The range that corresponds to the average monthly volatility is $101,300 - $127,800.

The Average Daily Volatility

The average daily volatility is 4.6%, likely for the last time today. This volatility will probably dip tomorrow (because the low of June 22nd will no longer be included in the calculation). But based on yesterday's low and high ($116,186 and $120,297), the expected range for today is $115,000 - $121,500.

The Daily Chart

The trend on the Bitcoin daily chart is still stably bullish. Technically, with yesterday's low ($116,186), we may have caught a new swing low (and thus a new bottom). If that indeed turns out to be the case tomorrow, it would be a textbook continuation of the bullish trend, with ever-higher highs and higher lows.

The signal of declining momentum I mentioned in my previous analysis did materialize: there was too little momentum last week to reach a new All-Time High. However, that changed a bit yesterday: the body of the green candle is finally significantly larger than its wicks again. In this bullish trend, this increases the probability of higher prices – and thus the chance of a new All-Time High!

The Hourly Chart

The hourly chart is quite erratic at the moment: since my last analysis (the vertical blue dotted line indicates the time), the trend has reversed more than ten times. What's noticeable is that the bullish trends have more momentum than the bearish trends. You could therefore see the bullish trends as 'stronger': in any case, the hourly chart does not give a clear signal that the bullish trend on the daily chart is about to reverse.

However, the 1h-chart is not stably bullish: although the three MA lines are in the correct order, that's all there is to it. For a stably bullish chart, you want to see the price above the MA lines, with those MA lines, from top to bottom—fast, slower, slowest—all pointing upwards. That has not been the case since my last analysis (the blue vertical dotted line).

My Expectation

The chance of a new All-Time High has increased in the last few days:

• There is still room regarding monthly volatility.

• The daily chart is bullish and bullish momentum is increasing.

• The hourly chart does not show a clear diverging signal.

I am keeping a close eye on the daily range in particular: $115,000 - $121,500. If the price breaks above that $121,500, things will get interesting today!

Please note: I am NOT giving you financial advice. The only thing you are reading here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything of the sort. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell anything.

The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research – preferably always in the same way – before you decide to buy or sell an asset like Bitcoin.

Although the market reacted enthusiastically to positive economic news from the United States and the price even briefly touched $121,000 yesterday, that's where it stayed. Meanwhile, trading volume, and with it momentum, is decreasing. What do the charts tell us about Bitcoin's price development this weekend?

The Crypto Report Card

The Crypto Report Card remains unchanged at a 6. Sentiment therefore remains hesitant, despite significant price increases for a few altcoins over the past 24 hours. While some altcoin markets are already showing upward trends, there are still too few for a stably higher Report Card.

The Monthly Volatility

The monthly volatility is unchanged compared to yesterday. In fact, it hasn't changed since the previous All-Time High, which was last Monday.

On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage is the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. The range that belongs to the average monthly volatility is $101,300 - $127,800.

The Average Daily Volatility

The average daily volatility is also still 4.6%. Based on yesterday's low and high ($117,506 and $121,000), the expected range for today is $115,700 - $123,900.

At the time of writing (eleven o'clock in the morning), the Bitcoin price is, like yesterday, somewhere in the middle of that range. And just like yesterday, this range can give a signal: it could be an interesting day for Bitcoin if the price breaks out of the $115,700 - $123,900 range.

The Daily Chart

Although yesterday's high ($121,000) is higher than the day before yesterday, nothing else has changed on the daily chart. The trend remains stably bullish. However, the daily volume is something to keep an eye on: it seems to be decreasing somewhat, which increases the chance of price declines.

As for price action: the longer wicks we've seen over the past two days show some uncertainty about the direction the price should move. Although much indicates that we have not yet reached the new peak (and thus a new All-Time High), there is currently too little momentum for that to happen.

The Hourly Chart

Yesterday's bearish trend reversal indeed turned out not to be very strong; the hourly chart has now turned bullish. The higher peaks and troughs we've seen since yesterday are supported by three MA lines that are all in the correct order and all pointing upwards.

Yesterday afternoon at three o'clock (European Time), shortly after the positive news about employment figures, among other things, was released in the US, the Bitcoin price quickly rose to $121,000. However, the party was already over there: many traders are currently taking profits in the $121,000 zone, which prevented a real breakout, and thus an All-Time High, yesterday. Currently, the Bitcoin price, on the hourly chart, is moving in a range between $118,500 and $121,000.

Trading volume has decreased somewhat in the last 12 hours, indicating a temporary lack of interest from retail traders. And then that triangle from yesterday, which clearly showed that volatility was decreasing: the price was not moving as much anymore. In almost all cases, a breakout then occurs, usually 'with the trend'.

The price did come out of the triangle, but there was no real breakout. A false signal, then: I no longer consider this triangle relevant.

My Expectation

The price currently seems to be moving sideways, with somewhat decreasing interest. Although the 'slower' charts are all bullish, the trend on the faster charts, such as the 5m-chart, has now turned bearish. I'm keeping a close eye on that: if the trend remains bearish there (and we don't see sideways movements on that 5m-chart), I expect some modest price declines during the first part of the weekend.

Please note: I do NOT give you financial advice. Everything you read here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything similar. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell something. The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research—preferably always in the same way—before deciding to buy or sell an 'asset' like Bitcoin.

The Crypto Report Card

The Crypto Report Card remains unchanged at a 6. Sentiment therefore remains hesitant, despite significant price increases for a few altcoins over the past 24 hours. While some altcoin markets are already showing upward trends, there are still too few for a stably higher Report Card.

The Monthly Volatility

The monthly volatility is unchanged compared to yesterday. In fact, it hasn't changed since the previous All-Time High, which was last Monday.

On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage is the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. The range that belongs to the average monthly volatility is $101,300 - $127,800.

The Average Daily Volatility

The average daily volatility is also still 4.6%. Based on yesterday's low and high ($117,506 and $121,000), the expected range for today is $115,700 - $123,900.

At the time of writing (eleven o'clock in the morning), the Bitcoin price is, like yesterday, somewhere in the middle of that range. And just like yesterday, this range can give a signal: it could be an interesting day for Bitcoin if the price breaks out of the $115,700 - $123,900 range.

The Daily Chart

Although yesterday's high ($121,000) is higher than the day before yesterday, nothing else has changed on the daily chart. The trend remains stably bullish. However, the daily volume is something to keep an eye on: it seems to be decreasing somewhat, which increases the chance of price declines.

As for price action: the longer wicks we've seen over the past two days show some uncertainty about the direction the price should move. Although much indicates that we have not yet reached the new peak (and thus a new All-Time High), there is currently too little momentum for that to happen.

The Hourly Chart

Yesterday's bearish trend reversal indeed turned out not to be very strong; the hourly chart has now turned bullish. The higher peaks and troughs we've seen since yesterday are supported by three MA lines that are all in the correct order and all pointing upwards.

Yesterday afternoon at three o'clock (European Time), shortly after the positive news about employment figures, among other things, was released in the US, the Bitcoin price quickly rose to $121,000. However, the party was already over there: many traders are currently taking profits in the $121,000 zone, which prevented a real breakout, and thus an All-Time High, yesterday. Currently, the Bitcoin price, on the hourly chart, is moving in a range between $118,500 and $121,000.

Trading volume has decreased somewhat in the last 12 hours, indicating a temporary lack of interest from retail traders. And then that triangle from yesterday, which clearly showed that volatility was decreasing: the price was not moving as much anymore. In almost all cases, a breakout then occurs, usually 'with the trend'.

The price did come out of the triangle, but there was no real breakout. A false signal, then: I no longer consider this triangle relevant.

My Expectation

The price currently seems to be moving sideways, with somewhat decreasing interest. Although the 'slower' charts are all bullish, the trend on the faster charts, such as the 5m-chart, has now turned bearish. I'm keeping a close eye on that: if the trend remains bearish there (and we don't see sideways movements on that 5m-chart), I expect some modest price declines during the first part of the weekend.

Please note: I do NOT give you financial advice. Everything you read here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything similar. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell something. The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research—preferably always in the same way—before deciding to buy or sell an 'asset' like Bitcoin.

The Crypto Report Card

The Crypto Report Card, which is a good indicator of sentiment in the crypto market, has risen again slightly, to a 6. This is mainly due to, after a long wait, trend reversals on a few altcoin charts! A few of these charts have now become bullish again.

Good to keep an eye on: if we see a Crypto Report Card of 8 or higher for a few days in a row, that is a very reliable signal that we could experience a bull run.

The Monthly Volatility ('Interval Volatility')

The monthly volatility is unchanged again and still stands at 17.2%. That is still 4.5% lower than the monthly volatility we can expect for July.

On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage is the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. The range corresponding to the average monthly volatility is $101,300 - $127,800.

The Average Daily Volatility

The average daily volatility is still 4.6%. Based on yesterday's low and high ($117,047 and $120,086), the expected range for today is $114,800 - $122,400. The Bitcoin price, as I write this (10am in Europe), is $118,235, exactly in the middle of that range. One of the signals that it could be an interesting day for Bitcoin is a price breakout from the $114,800 - $122,400 range.

The Daily Chart

The BTC-USD daily chart on Bitstamp remains neatly bullish, with a price that also stays nicely above the support of $117,400 (the first Fibonacci Retracement zone, which we discussed yesterday and the day before yesterday). The MA lines also look good: the trend can therefore, again, undoubtedly be called stably bullish.

The Hourly Chart

Although the hourly chart was briefly bullish yesterday afternoon, the trend according to the peaks and troughs has ‘technically’ already reversed to bearish.

However: volatility is significantly decreasing at the moment, as you can see from the triangle. That doesn't make the bearish trend reversal very strong. Moreover, the MA lines are now back in the correct order (slow, faster, fastest), and that order actually indicates a bullish trend.

In short: the trend on the hour chart is unclear. And that while the chance of a breakout has become quite large. Which direction is then more likely?

If I look at the 15m chart and the 5m chart, both of which currently indicate a bullish trend, the chance of a price increase is slightly greater than a price decrease in the event of a breakout. And that would again be in line with the bullish trend on the daily chart.

My Expectation

Again today, some figures will be released from the United States, providing insight into unemployment and consumer confidence. And so, again, for the last time this week:

• Are those figures negative? Then people on Wall Street will become a bit more nervous, which increases the chance of a (temporary) falling Bitcoin price, towards $118,000. If the price falls even further? Then, according to the Fibonacci Retracements on the day chart, there is support at $113,700 and $110,700.

• Are those figures positive? Then a rise towards $122,000 and perhaps even further is quite possible.

Please note: I do NOT give you financial advice. Everything you read here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything similar. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell something. The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research—preferably always in the same way—before deciding to buy or sell an 'asset' like Bitcoin.

So, there was no panic yesterday, despite some FUD that was spread. Good news for Bitcoin holders, then!

The Crypto Report Card

The Crypto Report Card, which is a good indicator of sentiment in the crypto market, has risen slightly to a 5. It shows that sentiment, also due to the news about rising inflation in America, has become a bit more cautious again.

Monthly Volatility ('Interval Volatility')

Monthly volatility is unchanged and still stands at 17.2%. That is a few percent lower than the expected monthly volatility for July: 21.7%.

On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage is the monthly volatility.

The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months; this is higher than the volatility we have seen so far in July.

We are only halfway through July, so statistically, the chance of more price movement is high. The range associated with the average monthly volatility is $101,300 - $127,800.

Average Daily Volatility

The average daily volatility is currently 4.6%.

Based on yesterday's low and high ($115,729 and $119,945), the expected range for today is $114,700 - $121,100.

As I write this (8:00am in the morning in Europe), the Bitcoin price is still neatly within the expected range. If the price goes outside that range, for example, by dropping back to less than $114,700, it will be another day, just like yesterday, to keep a close eye on the Bitcoin price!

The Daily Chart

The daily chart shows it very clearly: yesterday's price drop is nothing more than a brief 'pause'. The most important indication of this is yesterday's enormous trading volume.

Do you see the red bar, all the way to the right in the image above? That's yesterday's trading volume. The last time we saw so much trading volume in one day was at the beginning of December 2024, more than seven months ago.

Despite this enormous volume yesterday, the price of Bitcoin did not fall spectacularly. This shows that there was no panic whatsoever: there were more than enough buyers for the bitcoins of traders who wanted to take profits.

Nothing has changed in the trend on the daily chart: it remains stably bullish.

And what about the support?

Just like yesterday, it's interesting to look at the Fibonacci Retracement Tool. Will the support hold at $117,400, the first retracement (23.6%)?

The answer is: yes! That support has been tested again today. And what was already visible yesterday is confirmed today: the 'dip' seems to have been reached.

The long wick on yesterday's candle shows that prices lower than $117,400 have been rejected so far.

For more certainty, we will have to 'zoom in'. What does the hourly chart tell us about this?

The Hourly Chart

Technically, the hourly chart, as was the case yesterday, is bearish: there is no convincing bullish trend reversal yet (higher highs and higher lows). However, the price has been back above $117,200 for a few hours now: $117,200 is the second retracement (which was tested almost all day yesterday, 38.2%).

In short: if we were to use no other timeframes for our analysis, we’d have to wait a little longer. Based on the hourly chart, it is difficult to conclude whether the dip has been reached or not.

Of course, we could zoom in further, on the even faster 5-minute chart for example. There, the trend is now convincingly bullish, so there is a good chance that the hourly chart will also move in that direction.

My Expectation

Just like yesterday, there are no real alarm signals visible on the charts:

• All profit-taking was 'eaten up' by buyers yesterday.

• The most important retracement levels seem to be holding.

• The heatmap already shows rising prices for many altcoins as well.

Just like yesterday, figures will be released from the US today that shed light on inflation. And so, just like yesterday:

• Are those figures negative, which increases the chance of interest rate hikes?

  Then a renewed (temporary) falling Bitcoin price is more or less logical.

• Are those figures better than expected and does Wall Street react enthusiastically? Then a spontaneous All-Time High is easily possible!

Please note: I am NOT giving you financial advice. All you read here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything of the sort. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell something.

The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research – preferably always in the same way – before deciding to buy or sell an 'asset' such as Bitcoin.

The expected 'pause' in the Bitcoin price has indeed occurred, with a drop of over 6%. This isn't very surprising: many investors have naturally taken profits. A significant number of Bitcoins are also flowing to exchanges, as a 'large holder' is apparently selling. This, of course, created some FUD. But what is the next step? And what role will Wall Street play in this today?

The Crypto Report Card

The Crypto Report Card has dropped further, to a 3. The (not so special) drop in Bitcoin's price has dragged the altcoins down with it, causing, among other things, a red 'heatmap' on coin360.com. And you can guess that falling altcoin prices aren't exactly good for a potential bullish trend reversal for altcoins.

To keep the Crypto Report Card at a continuous 'sufficient' level, most altcoins need to show a bullish trend on the 'slower' charts. That is absolutely not the case at the moment.

The monthly volatility ('interval volatility')

The monthly volatility is unchanged and still stands at 17.2%. That is a few percent lower than the expected monthly volatility for July: 21.7%.

On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage is the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. This indicates that we can expect more price breakouts this month, with a range of $101,300 - $127,800.

The average daily volatility

The average daily volatility is currently 4.6%. Based on yesterday's low and high ($118,972 and $123,236), the daily range is $117,800 - $124,400.

Just as was the case yesterday, the price has already broken out of that range this morning at half-past nine! This time it's a downward breakout: the price has already been lower than $117,000 at ten o'clock this morning. So there is already more volatility than usual. That means that, just like yesterday, today could be another interesting day for the Bitcoin price.

The daily chart

Yesterday, we discussed what the main causes of a possible price drop would be:

• Decreasing trading volume with a rising price

• The 'rubber band' effect that occurs when the price is far above its own moving average.

That expected price drop has indeed happened. By the way, this changes absolutely nothing about the trend on the daily chart: it remains stably bullish.

At the moment, the daily chart shows two contradictory signals:

• Bullish: the volume has risen rapidly while the price has fallen.

• Bearish: the price, even after the drop, is still too far from the MA20.

In the past, the combination of a bullish trend and a bullish volume signal has almost always been stronger than the 'rubber band' signal. In other words: the daily chart points to a possible price increase.

What about the support?

Yesterday, the Fib Retracement Tool told us where the possible support is, in case the price were to fall back.

You can see that the price has now broken through the first retracement line (23.6%). If the price also reaches the next line ($113,700), the peak we saw yesterday is 'valid' and we are technically on our way to a new low. From that moment on, I won't be counting on new All-Time Highs for a while.

How likely is it that the price will fall further, towards that $113,700? Looking at the already high trading volume for today (already 25% higher than yesterday and the day has yet to begin), I wouldn't be surprised if we have more or less reached the 'dip'. But... what does the hourly chart tell us?

The hourly chart

On the hourly chart, the trend has reversed to bearish (lower highs and lower lows).

But: the MA lines are intertwined and the price is below the two 'faster' MA20 and MA50 lines. This shows that the bearish trend is not yet very stable and will probably not last that long.

What about the retracements and their support?

You can clearly see that the support at $119,500 (the first retracement zone, 23.6%) held for a while. Then the price broke through the support, on its way to the next retracement zone: $117,200. That support also held for a few hours.

Technically, you could say that that support is still holding. After all, there is (as yet) no major price drop at the time of writing and the volatility has disappeared; the price is no longer moving that much. So the bottom seems to have been more or less reached.

A bottom of $116,800 that seems to be holding, decreasing volatility... Are we getting a breakout?

My expectation

As for today's Bitcoin price, it all looks pretty good according to the charts. We've seen the expected retracement and there are no real alarm signals.

Much depends on the news from the US later today:

• Has inflation risen, which increases the chance of interest rate hikes? Then a (temporarily) falling Bitcoin price is more or less logical.

• Are the inflation figures not so bad and does Wall Street react enthusiastically? Then nothing stands in the way of a new All-Time High!

Please note: I am NOT giving you financial advice. The only thing you read here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything like that. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell something.

The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research – preferably always in the same way – before you decide to buy or sell an 'asset' like Bitcoin.

The Crypto Report Card

The Crypto Report Card has dropped further, to a 3. The (not so special) drop in Bitcoin's price has dragged the altcoins down with it, causing, among other things, a red 'heatmap' on coin360.com. And you can guess that falling altcoin prices aren't exactly good for a potential bullish trend reversal for altcoins.

To keep the Crypto Report Card at a continuous 'sufficient' level, most altcoins need to show a bullish trend on the 'slower' charts. That is absolutely not the case at the moment.

The monthly volatility ('interval volatility')

The monthly volatility is unchanged and still stands at 17.2%. That is a few percent lower than the expected monthly volatility for July: 21.7%.

On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the high is currently 17.2% higher than the low. That percentage is the monthly volatility. The average monthly volatility is now 21.7% over the past six months. This indicates that we can expect more price breakouts this month, with a range of $101,300 - $127,800.

The average daily volatility

The average daily volatility is currently 4.6%. Based on yesterday's low and high ($118,972 and $123,236), the daily range is $117,800 - $124,400.

Just as was the case yesterday, the price has already broken out of that range this morning at half-past nine! This time it's a downward breakout: the price has already been lower than $117,000 at ten o'clock this morning. So there is already more volatility than usual. That means that, just like yesterday, today could be another interesting day for the Bitcoin price.

The daily chart

Yesterday, we discussed what the main causes of a possible price drop would be:

• Decreasing trading volume with a rising price

• The 'rubber band' effect that occurs when the price is far above its own moving average.

That expected price drop has indeed happened. By the way, this changes absolutely nothing about the trend on the daily chart: it remains stably bullish.

At the moment, the daily chart shows two contradictory signals:

• Bullish: the volume has risen rapidly while the price has fallen.

• Bearish: the price, even after the drop, is still too far from the MA20.

In the past, the combination of a bullish trend and a bullish volume signal has almost always been stronger than the 'rubber band' signal. In other words: the daily chart points to a possible price increase.

What about the support?

Yesterday, the Fib Retracement Tool told us where the possible support is, in case the price were to fall back.

You can see that the price has now broken through the first retracement line (23.6%). If the price also reaches the next line ($113,700), the peak we saw yesterday is 'valid' and we are technically on our way to a new low. From that moment on, I won't be counting on new All-Time Highs for a while.

How likely is it that the price will fall further, towards that $113,700? Looking at the already high trading volume for today (already 25% higher than yesterday and the day has yet to begin), I wouldn't be surprised if we have more or less reached the 'dip'. But... what does the hourly chart tell us?

The hourly chart

On the hourly chart, the trend has reversed to bearish (lower highs and lower lows).

But: the MA lines are intertwined and the price is below the two 'faster' MA20 and MA50 lines. This shows that the bearish trend is not yet very stable and will probably not last that long.

What about the retracements and their support?

You can clearly see that the support at $119,500 (the first retracement zone, 23.6%) held for a while. Then the price broke through the support, on its way to the next retracement zone: $117,200. That support also held for a few hours.

Technically, you could say that that support is still holding. After all, there is (as yet) no major price drop at the time of writing and the volatility has disappeared; the price is no longer moving that much. So the bottom seems to have been more or less reached.

A bottom of $116,800 that seems to be holding, decreasing volatility... Are we getting a breakout?

My expectation

As for today's Bitcoin price, it all looks pretty good according to the charts. We've seen the expected retracement and there are no real alarm signals.

Much depends on the news from the US later today:

• Has inflation risen, which increases the chance of interest rate hikes? Then a (temporarily) falling Bitcoin price is more or less logical.

• Are the inflation figures not so bad and does Wall Street react enthusiastically? Then nothing stands in the way of a new All-Time High!

Please note: I am NOT giving you financial advice. The only thing you read here is my expectation and not a 'prediction' or anything like that. You will never get a tip from me, not even 'between the lines', to buy or sell something.

The only and best advice I can give you is: always do your own research – preferably always in the same way – before you decide to buy or sell an 'asset' like Bitcoin.